Exclusive: Data Show Growth of Ontario iGaming Market Slowing Compared to US States

Established markets in MI, NJ, & PA all outperformed the province in Q3 2022, but Ontario is still holding its own when comparing each jurisdiction’s first six months of action.
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By
October 21, 2022

The growth rate for Ontario online poker, casino gaming, and sports betting have slowed compared to the three US states with all three verticals, data from the respective regulatory agencies show.

Revenue from online gambling in the province totaled CAD $267 million (USD $193.5 million) in Q3 2022, according to iGaming Ontario (iGO), which issued its quarterly report last week. That was up from the CAD $162 million (USD $123.4 million) operators grossed in the opening quarter for the market, Q2 2022.

An analysis of the data shows Ontario underperformed in the third quarter compared to Michigan, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. But the province was still performing better than two of the states during their first six months of operation. In terms of revenue per capita, it continued to put up substantial numbers against all of its competitors.

Established Markets in the US Outperformed Ontario in Q3

Ontario did not perform as well as the more established markets in the US in Q3 2022.

New Jersey had nearly $1.1 billion in revenue from all three verticals in Q3, according to the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement (NJDGE). Michigan followed with $941 million in revenue, and Pennsylvania grossed $897.7 million, the Michigan Gaming Control Board (MGCB) and the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board (PGCB) reported, respectively.

The figures show Ontario’s market was about 35% the size of Pennsylvania’s in Q3. The province was also 33.7% the size of Michigan and about 29% the size of New Jersey during the most recent quarter.

But those figures show Ontario’s growth rate is slowing compared to the three US states. At the end of Q2, Ontario’s market represented about 28% of the size of the Pennsylvania market. The province was 26.7% and 23% of the markets, compared to Michigan and New Jersey.

Ontario Outpacing Its Rivals

Ontario was still performing better in its first six months for iGaming compared to New Jersey and Pennsylvania. The province had USD $316.8 million in revenue during that span, compared to $236 million in New Jersey and $201.5 million in Pennsylvania.

Michigan was another story. MGCB data show that, with $603.6 million in revenue through June 2021, the Wolverine State was well on its way to becoming an iGaming powerhouse after just six months of operations.

There are signs that Ontario is outpacing its rivals. Provincial revenue through the first six months of operation represented 52.5% of Michigan’s total, up from 47.5% at the three-month mark. Similarly, New Jersey slid from representing 82.6% of Ontario’s total at the end of three months to 74.5% after six months, and Pennsylvania tumbled from about 75% after three months to 63.4% after six.

Province’s Per Capita Rate is Also Rising

In terms of online gambling revenue per capita, Ontario made inroads in Q3.

With just under 15 million residents, Ontario is the most populous Canadian province. It would be the fifth-largest US state by population — a title currently held by Pennsylvania, which has 13 million people. Michigan ranks 10th with 10.1 million residents, while New Jersey has 9.3 million people and is ranked 11th.

Ontario’s per capita revenue rate works out to $21 through the first six months its market was live. The per capita rate was $60 in Michigan, $25 in New Jersey, and $16 in Pennsylvania.

Data show the province has been improving in this metric. Ontario’s per capita rate was 35% of Michigan’s in Q3, up from 30.8% in Q2. Compared to New Jersey, the province improved to 84% in Q3, up from 72.7% in Q2. Meanwhile, Ontario took a more significant lead over Pennsylvania — the Keystone State’s per capita rate was 87.5% of Ontario’s in Q2, but it slipped to just over 72% in Q3.

Learn more about real money Ontario online casinos.

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